BC Politics with Hubert Beyer

POLL FOILS CAMPBELL’S VICTORY

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VICTORIA – I’ve never liked polls. At best, they represent a snapshot of public opinion which, in our volatile political climate, can and often does change the next day; at worst, they’re self-fulfilling prophesies. The latest Angus Reid poll is no exception.

Conducted between Sept. 2 and 15, the poll suggests that Liberal leader Gordon Campbell’s popularity continues to slide. Campbell, said Reid, has moved "dramatically out of favor with the B.C. public."

The date the poll ended is important. It’s the date on which the Surrey-White Rock byelection was held – Sept. 15.

Ever since Premier Clark called the byelection to fill the seat left vacant by Liberal Wilf Hurd, who ran unsuccessfully in the federal election, political pundits had stressed the importance of the outcome to Gordon Campbell’s leadership of the Liberal Party.

A Liberal defeat, they said, would be the end of Campbell’s political career. Not even a narrow victory, they said, would be enough to save Campbell from oblivion. Only a decisive victory could assure his continued leadership.

Well, the Liberals won the byelection by a 5,000-vote margin, big enough to keep Campbell in the saddle.

The days following should, by all counts, have been marked by editorial speculation and political punditry about Campbell’s renewed grip on the Liberal Party. Instead, the headlines told of further erosion of Campbell’s popularity.

The negative headlines were, of course, the direct result of the Angus Reid poll, the one that felt the electorate’s pulse right up to the date of the byelection, but failed to reflect the inevitable surge Campbell’s popularity was bound to enjoy as a result of the convincing Liberal victory.

As a reflection of the public’s assessment of B.C. politics directly before the byelection, the poll was interesting enough.

Gordon Wilson, the man who once led the Liberals, received the highest voter approval of three leaders with 48 per cent of respondents saying he was doing a good job. Premier Glen Clark came in second with 42 per cent, up three points since June. Campbell trailed with a 36-per-cent approval rating, down eight points since June. Newly-elected Reform leader Wilf Hanni wasn’t even on the ballot.

Party standings, however, gave a different reading. The Liberals were still ahead with 33 per cent. The NDP, steadily gaining, came in a close second with 30 per cent, followed by B.C. Reform with 24 per cent.

The poll also ascertained that the public is evenly split on whether or not Reformers and Liberals should merge to oppose the NDP as a single right-wing, free-enterprise force in the next general election. Forty-seven per cent said it's a good idea, while 48 per cent didn’t favor the move.

Meanwhile, shakers and movers within both the Liberal and the Reform camps continue to nix the idea as well, even though it would be the only sure way to beat the NDP.

W.A.C. Bennett wrote the book on the need for a right-wing coalition to keep the NDP at Bay. He did it for 20 years. His son Bill Bennett kept up the tradition. But now, it seems, there is no politician in sight who could galvanize the right.

Campbell made his biggest mistake when he spurned the idea of a coalition, believing that his party would attract enough Reformers to put him into the premier’s office. It didn’t happen, and as a result, his leadership came under scrutiny. The Liberals’ dreadful performance during the last session didn’t help him much either.

But the decisive Liberal byelection victory should have been a victory of sorts for him, too. Instead he was forced to suffer further humiliation at the hands of a poll that ignored the byelection.

And that’s one more reason I don’t like polls.

UNITY ISSUE FRONT AND CENTRE AGAIN

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VICTORIA – There’s no doubt Canadian politicians learned their lesson from the ill-fated Meech Lake and Charlottetown Accords. The lesson is: don’t exclude the public out of any constitutional deals.

After meeting in Calgary, the countries premiers, sans Lucien Bouchard, nearly fell over themselves declaring that any constitutional changes will be attempted only after extensive public consultation. No more back room deals.

The nine premiers had met solely to discuss the Canadian unity issue. Unlike before, they decided not to wait until Bouchard forces the country’s hand again by holding another referendum in Quebec.

The premiers obviously remembered that during the run-up to the October 1995 referendum, we all got caught off guard and nearly lost the country. And even though the public at large may have no appetite for constitutional talks at this time, our political leaders recognize that, like it or not, we’ve got to deal with the problem or risk the break-up of Canada again.

The premiers came up with an idea that may prove to be as effective as it is simple. Rather than belaboring the old term "distinct society," viewed with suspicion by most Anglophones, they proposed to recognize Quebec as a "unique" place within Canadian federation. The exact words of Article 5 of the Calgary Declaration is as follows:

"In Canada’s federal system, where respect for diversity and quality underlies unity, the unique character of Quebec society, including its French-speaking majority, its culture and its tradition of civil law, is fundamental to the well-being of Canada. Consequently, the legislature and government of Quebec have a role to protect and develop the unique character of Quebec society within Canada."

Other articles of the declaration call for equality of all provinces, a favorite demand of the Reform Party, and set out guiding principles for Canada as a special place where tolerance and compassion are prized principles.

But it’s the "unique character" phrase that will be the acid test of Canada’s willingness to make a concession to Quebec that is largely rhetorical and metaphoric. I never had a problem with "distinct society" either but the majority of Anglophones did.

The other part of this renewed approach to achieve unity by incorporating Quebec’s aspirations into the constitution is the solemn pledge to involve the public in the debate. Failure to do so was to a large extent responsible for the sinking of Meech and Charlottetown.

Initial reaction to the Calgary Declaration has been encouraging. Prime Minister Jean Chretien, who had been a fierce defender of the "distinct society" clause, all but abandoned it to embrace the "unique character" wording.

Quebec Liberal leader Daniel Johnson, Reform leader Preston Manning and NDP leader Alexa McDonough also expressed support for the Calgary Declaration.

The only one who dismissed the premiers’ efforts as well as the "unique character" description was Bouchard. The Parti Quebecois leader and avowed separatist said the declaration had nothing new to offer Quebec.

The beauty, however, is that it won’t matter one iota what Bouchard thinks. This is a battle for the hearts and minds of Canadians, both inside and outside Quebec. If the intent of the Calgary Declaration proves acceptable to English-speaking Canadians, it will have a good chance of being equally acceptable to Quebec.

The end result would be that next time Quebec voters are asked to cast their ballots for or against separation, they will respond with a resounding no. And that would take care of Bouchard and his agenda.

If, on the other hand, Anglophones reject the Calgary Declaration during the rounds of public talks and debate that will take place, we may yet again face the potential breakup of Canada.

This time, the fate of Canada is in everybody’s hands.

LIBERALS SCORE DECISIVE VICTORY

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VICTORIA – Maybe Liberal leader Gordon Campbell won’t have to go looking for a new job yet.

The Liberal victory in Monday’s Surrey-White Rock byelection wasn’t nearly as stunning as in the last general election, but Gordon Hogg’s showing was very respectable and may silence the critics of Campbell’s leadership for the time being.

The information I am basing this piece was the count at about 10 p.m. At that time, Hogg was leading his Reform Party opponent, David Secord, by a comfortable two-to-one margin.

The general consensus of political junkies and scientists was that this byelection would make or break Campbell. As University of Victoria political scientist Norman Ruff put it, if the Liberals just squeak in, "the lights will dim for Campbell." If the Liberals lose, "his lights go out."

Well, the lights may flicker a little, but with a bit of political acumen, which Campbell has unfortunately been in short supply of, he should be able to cement his position as leader of the Liberal Party.

Not knowing the final count at the time of writing, I can’t make an exact comparison of the results to those of the 1996 general election, except to say that Wilf Hurd beat his NDP opponent by a massive 10,000-vote margin and the third-place Reformer by 15,000 votes.

And while Monday’s results are nowhere near as impressive, they probably will enable Campbell to nip any challenge to his leadership in the bud.

Criticism of Campbell’s leadership was becoming very vociferous, after the Liberals turned in a pitiful performance in the last legislative session. Instead of dominating the agenda and going after a stumbling government, the Liberals emerged from the session as the clear losers.

Campbell rejected the idea that the byelection would be a test of his leadership abilities, but his own candidate knew better, admitting that voters had repeatedly raised the question of Campbell’s inability to mount a strong opposition to the NDP.

In part, the Liberal victory was due to its near-perfect candidate. Hogg He’s the son of a pioneer White Rock family. He was mayor for years and is well known and like in the community.

The only thing that might have hurt him was the fact that he was the tip corrections official when Danny Perrault walked away from a minimum security prison in 1993 and, while on the loose, savagely beat and raped a Surrey woman.

For the Reform Party of B.C., the outcome was disappointing. Its fortunes also were tied very closely to this byelection.

The Reformers just elected a new leader, and a victory in this byelection would have put the party on the political map. The support was there. In several polls, the then leaderless Reform Party, with has only two seats in the legislature, had outscored the Liberals.

A victory would have sent a message to voters that Reform is a viable right-wing alternative to the NDP. Alas, it wasn’t to be.

Wild Hanni, the new leader, should perhaps now take one of those famous walks in the woods and contemplate his and his party’s future.

He hasn’t got a seat in the legislature and most likely won’t have chance to get one before the next general election. Byelections don’t happen that often.

And if he leads Reform into the next fray, the best he can accomplish is to split the right-wing vote once again.

My advice to Hanni is ask Premier Clark if he should throw his lot in with the Liberals. If Clark says no, do it.