BC Politics with Hubert Beyer

PREMIER WILL SURVIVE PENTICTON

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VICTORIA -- What if delegates to the Socred convention later this month held a secret vote on Premier Vander Zalm's leadership and everybody voted no? Bill's out, the party is saved and Bob's your uncle.

The scenario is being contemplated with great relish by political observers, columnists and anti-Vander Zalm forces, but it ain't gonna happen, folks. There may not be a secret ballot to start with, but even if there is, the premier will come out of it relatively unscathed.

A few months ago, I wouldn't have given a plugged nickel for the premier's chances to survive a concerted attack on his leadership. There was nothing the majority of the party faithful wanted more than their leader's head on a platter.

To me, that time was one of the strangest in my journalistic career. No matter how much I lambasted Vander Zalm, my Socred friends and acquaintances would phone me and accuse me of being too soft on the guy.

NDP supporters, on the other hand, would have had me treat the premier less critically. Vander Zalm and his never-ending screw-ups were the best ally the opposition had in a long time. The last thing the NDP wanted was a change in Socred leadership.

At the time, it seemed the Socreds had two choices -- stick with Vander Zalm and continue to roller coaster ride into political oblivion or dump him and hope for the best. Few if any, myself included, believed that Vander Zalm could change his ways and bring the party back to some sort of sanity under his leadership. Recent developments have proven them and me wrong. Just when his prospects were at their bleakest and the party was hovering at the edge of a big black hole, Vander Zalm surprised his critics by saying he had seen the error of his ways and promising to do things differently.

The miraculous transformation began following the caucus retreat in Courtenay earlier this year. That's where his fellow caucus members laid it on the line. They made it clear that he either get his dictatorial tendencies under control or face a revolt he couldn't hope to handle.

They obviously got through to him. Not only did he at long last get rid of David Poole who had been responsible for a lot of the premier's problems, but he relinquished some of the powers he hadassumed during the first 18 months of his leadership.

A special committee of caucus was appointed to provide input into government decisions at all levels. No longer was the premier alone to dictate government policy. To the surprise of most everyone, the premier proved as good as his word. At least, so far. The "New Vander Zalm's" first test will come when Socred delegates meet in Penticton from October 19 to October 22. It is at the convention his opponents within the party are hoping to have it out with him.

So far, only a handful of caucus members have said they support a secret vote of confidence in Vander Zalm's leadership. Not surprisingly, Grace McCarthy and Brian Smith are among them. The decision of whether or not to go ahead with the vote is to be made by a show of hands at the convention. And that's probably where the matter will end.

Encouraged by Vander Zalm's willingness and apparent ability to bow to the demands of the party, few of the delegates will be in a mood to rock the boat. And if, against expectations, the convention proceeds with a vote of confidence, I'm willing to bet on Vander Zalm's survival.

The second and more important test of Vander Zalm's new image won't come until after he returns from Penticton and settles into his daily routine. That's when we'll find just how committed he really is to his new role.

If he slides back into his old ways, we can no longer blame it on bad advice, because he's getting damned good advice these days. Ian Jessop, his new press secretary, is not a yes man. Nor is he inclined to sycophantically bathe in the reflection of power. When he covered the legislature as a radio reporters, Ian shook his head often enough at the premier's antics. He knows the man's weak spots and, no doubt, points them out to him.

How about that still small voice, tempting Vander Zalm? "Go for it, you're the premier. You were elected to lead, not to follow." It's a powerful temptation for this premier who didn't know much about parliamentary democracy until it almost destroyed his political career and the party he leads in the process. Those around him will probably have to remind him on occasion that he neither has the right nor what it takes to subvert the democratic process.

If he continues to follow their advice, he will keep his job. He may even lead the party into the next election with somewhat more hope for success than a snowball's chance in hell.

VANDER ZALM BACK IN PARTY'S GRACES

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VICTORIA -- What did I tell you. Dumping Bill Vander Zalm takes more than a group of city slicker Socred dissidents, asking for a secret vote of confidence in their leader.

When Vander Zalm stepped up to the podium in Penticton to address Social Credit Party delegates, he had already won half the battle. When he finished, his victory was complete.

It was a barn-burner of a speech, and if there was any opposition to his continued leadership at the start, it dwindled to no more than a handful by the end.

The speech was better than any I have ever heard Vander Zalm give, and if anyone expected him to wear sack cloth and eat crow, they were disappointed. He made some brief reference to past mistakes, but was largely on the offensive.

In his quest for support, Vander Zalm called on a variety of historic figures from Disraeli to Gladstone to Lincoln to Kipling to Margaret Thatcher who, Vander Zalm suggested, could take a lesson from British Columbia when it comes to reducing the cost of government through privatization.

Even God didn't escape being drawn into the family dispute. Admitting that the past year has been a very difficult one for him and the party, Vander Zalm added that he found great help in prayer.

He aimed a special, and well-deserved shot, at the media for having "harassed and ridiculed" not him, but his wife Lillian at every turn these past two years.

Throughout his address, Vander Zalm sounded like he was on the campaign trail rather than at a Socred party convention, dwelling at length on what he considered the government's achievements since he took office.

The economy, he said, was in better shape than at any time in the history of the province, the budget was about to be balanced, and the "rainy-day account," the budget stabilization fund, was fast approaching $1 billion.

The most effective part of Vander Zalm's speech, however, was directed at critics within the party. He reminded them that the place to discuss differences is not in public. To do so, he said, can only hurt the party.

"These critics are doing the job the NDP opposition could never do. We must stand united at all times. No-one is perfect. No-one has all the answers. We must all commit ourselves today to discuss our differences at the family table, not with the media," he said. But then he held out an olive branch by stating that there was a place in the family for "honest critics."

The first one to pick up the peace offering was Grace McCarthy. Asked what she thought of Vander Zalm's speech, she said she was impressed.

"He probably mended a lot of fences here today. I came here to hear a commitment by the premier to do better in the future. I believe I heard that commitment," McCarthy said.

But even though the convention delegates gave Vander Zalm a solid vote of confidence, it would be wrong to infer from that that they are completely happy with their leader.

Given Vander Zalm's open admission that he made mistakes and that he has learned from them, the delegates really had no choice but to confirm their confidence in him. The alternative -- dumping not only an incumbent leader, but a premier in office -- was simply unthinkable.

That's why attempts to determine the vote of confidence in Vander Zalm by secret ballot were shot down. That's why 1,060 delegates expressed their confidence in him, while only 75 raised their hands in an expression of non-confidence.

So where does all that leave Vander Zalm and the Social Credit Party? Well, they are still caught between a rock and a hard place, but they have a little more breathing room now. Whether it's enough to revive the somewhat battered party, is entirely up to Vander Zalm. His real challenge -- to close the rift within the party and heal the self©inflicted wounds -- is waiting for him in Victoria. Vander Zalm must now prove to his party that he meant what he said in Penticton. What's more, if the party is to have any chance for re-election, he must convince a lot of people who weren't in Penticton that he has really changed.

At the moment, there's no doubt that the NDP is way ahead in public opinion polls. If an election were held today, the Socreds would be turfed out. But then, if a federal election had been held a year ago, the Tories, too, would almost certainly have been defeated. For the next two years, watching Vander Zalm will be an interesting hobby. I certainly wouldn't place any bets yet on an NDP landslide in the next election. Like I said, it's up to Vander Zalm whether the Social Credit Party will survive or disappear from the political scene.

VANDER ZALM'S IMAGE ON THE MEND?

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VICTORIA -- Like Julius Caesar, they came, they saw, but only one of them conquered; the other one never managed to get past the ramparts.

In the ongoing battle for the hearts, souls and votes of British Columbians, Premier Vander Zalm and NDP Leader Mike Harcourt launched an assault on the same objective last week -- the annual convention of the B.C. and Yukon Community Newspaper Association which met at the Sheraton Landmark in Vancouver.

A mere six hours separated their campaigns. Harcourt was the guest speaker at lunch, the premier at dinner. When it was all over, the verdict was unanimous: Vander Zalm was the clear winner. Harcourt had blown it.

Harcourt not only gave the wrong speech to the wrong audience; his delivery was awful. Vander Zalm, on the other hand, couldn't possibly have come up with a better speech. He should give the guy who wrote it a raise.

Harcourt completely misjudged his audience, spending the first half of his speech lambasting the government, the second half on the province's tourism potential.

His attack on the government would have been better suited to an NDP convention; his foray into tourism might have interested a convention of travel agents. His audience wouldn't be found at either.

The people he addressed were publishers of community newspapers.

They were businessmen and women whose skill is measured in how they compete and survive in a highly competitive business.

That isn't to say they don't take their journalistic obligations seriously. Most of them do, but they are first and foremost managers. And they have to be, for if they can't control the bottom line, the best journalism won't keep their papers alive. Considering all that, the first part of Harcourt's speech was wasted on the audience at best and an insult at worst. As for his remarks on tourism, they almost put the audience to sleep. Before he started speaking, Harcourt said to someone at the head table he would give them a "thumper." Wow. I wonder what a dull Harcourt speech is like.

A few hours later, same place, same audience, Vander Zalm was at his best. He was upbeat, charming and, most of all, he had the right speech for the audience.

The whole address was an ode to community newspapers, and somehow he managed to find a way of saying that government and community papers have identical aims and similar problems. The logic sounds a bit fuzzy in the cold light of day, but boy, it sounded good at the time. Vander Zalm gave the speech Harcourt should have given, and could have given because he was up first.

What Harcourt couldn't have matched was the premier's announcement that from now on, community newspapers would get a fair share of the government advertising dollar.

Until now, the lion's share of the government's advertising budget has always gone to the dailies and the electronic media. That's to change.

The move is long overdue. Community newspapers reach an estimated 95 per cent of all British Columbians. Some of the publishers told me later the premier could perhaps have made the announcement at some other time. It looked a little too much like a bribe, they thought, but I don't foresee any of them turning down the ads. During the past couple of months, I had been quite intrigued with the scenario of Vander Zalm's voluntary departure from the political scene. After last week's performance, I'm not so sure anymore.

It was quite obvious that the premier is not only receiving solid advice lately, but that he's actually following it. His image, tarnished by his own past mistakes and the terrible advice he got from David Poole, is undeniably on the mend.

Behind this change are none other than two former colleagues of mine, Ian Jessop, the premier's new press secretary, and Eli Sopow, who has been catapulted to associate deputy minister status in the government's beefed-up information apparatus.

Despite these obvious changes to the premier's image, he's by no means out of the woods yet. Until the public at large sees the difference and believes it, his name will still mud with a lot of Socred party faithful.

Vander Zalm burned a lot of bridges between the party and himself in the past 12 months. It takes time to rebuild them. But if the Vander Zalm I saw last week at the Sheraton Landmark is any indication of things to come, Harcourt might wait at his own risk for the premier to self-destruct.

Before he knows it, Harcourt may be the one who will need an improved image. The least he will need is better speeches. He sure blew that one.