BC Politics with Hubert Beyer

VICTORIA – I’ve never liked polls. At best, they represent a snapshot of public opinion which, in our volatile political climate, can and often does change the next day; at worst, they’re self-fulfilling prophesies. The latest Angus Reid poll is no exception.

Conducted between Sept. 2 and 15, the poll suggests that Liberal leader Gordon Campbell’s popularity continues to slide. Campbell, said Reid, has moved "dramatically out of favor with the B.C. public."

The date the poll ended is important. It’s the date on which the Surrey-White Rock byelection was held – Sept. 15.

Ever since Premier Clark called the byelection to fill the seat left vacant by Liberal Wilf Hurd, who ran unsuccessfully in the federal election, political pundits had stressed the importance of the outcome to Gordon Campbell’s leadership of the Liberal Party.

A Liberal defeat, they said, would be the end of Campbell’s political career. Not even a narrow victory, they said, would be enough to save Campbell from oblivion. Only a decisive victory could assure his continued leadership.

Well, the Liberals won the byelection by a 5,000-vote margin, big enough to keep Campbell in the saddle.

The days following should, by all counts, have been marked by editorial speculation and political punditry about Campbell’s renewed grip on the Liberal Party. Instead, the headlines told of further erosion of Campbell’s popularity.

The negative headlines were, of course, the direct result of the Angus Reid poll, the one that felt the electorate’s pulse right up to the date of the byelection, but failed to reflect the inevitable surge Campbell’s popularity was bound to enjoy as a result of the convincing Liberal victory.

As a reflection of the public’s assessment of B.C. politics directly before the byelection, the poll was interesting enough.

Gordon Wilson, the man who once led the Liberals, received the highest voter approval of three leaders with 48 per cent of respondents saying he was doing a good job. Premier Glen Clark came in second with 42 per cent, up three points since June. Campbell trailed with a 36-per-cent approval rating, down eight points since June. Newly-elected Reform leader Wilf Hanni wasn’t even on the ballot.

Party standings, however, gave a different reading. The Liberals were still ahead with 33 per cent. The NDP, steadily gaining, came in a close second with 30 per cent, followed by B.C. Reform with 24 per cent.

The poll also ascertained that the public is evenly split on whether or not Reformers and Liberals should merge to oppose the NDP as a single right-wing, free-enterprise force in the next general election. Forty-seven per cent said it's a good idea, while 48 per cent didn’t favor the move.

Meanwhile, shakers and movers within both the Liberal and the Reform camps continue to nix the idea as well, even though it would be the only sure way to beat the NDP.

W.A.C. Bennett wrote the book on the need for a right-wing coalition to keep the NDP at Bay. He did it for 20 years. His son Bill Bennett kept up the tradition. But now, it seems, there is no politician in sight who could galvanize the right.

Campbell made his biggest mistake when he spurned the idea of a coalition, believing that his party would attract enough Reformers to put him into the premier’s office. It didn’t happen, and as a result, his leadership came under scrutiny. The Liberals’ dreadful performance during the last session didn’t help him much either.

But the decisive Liberal byelection victory should have been a victory of sorts for him, too. Instead he was forced to suffer further humiliation at the hands of a poll that ignored the byelection.

And that’s one more reason I don’t like polls.